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grundyscribblingInspired by starspray's Tumblr post on the subject. (Still reluctant to post meta on Tumblr. I do not think Starspray will be an ass about it, but others have been, occasionally long after it was originally posted.)
First, the ninety years factor doesn't seem all that odd to me. Ninety years doesn't mean nearly as much to a group of immortal beings as it does to you or I. (It took the Valar several years to deal with the Darkening of Valinor, and that was arguably a pretty urgent matter. If we've learned nothing else this year, we've learned that nature reacts pretty fast to changing circumstances. So I'm doubling down on my longstanding 'the Valar do not see things the way the Children do' theory.)
We know that Saruman knew more about ring lore than anyone else on the White Council. We also know that if he was not already under the sway of Sauron at this time, he was at least not telling the full truth to the White Council. We do have some idea of what he was telling them, based on what Gandalf says at the Council of Elrond in Fellowship of the Ring ("The Council of Elrond"):
Note that Saruman dissuaded them from open deeds - that doesn't mean he dissuaded them from covert deeds, and Gandalf has already acted the spy on several occasions. I would bet Saruman put that magnificent voice of his to use making the case that Gandalf was unnecessarily rattled by the discovery that the Necromancer was Sauron rather than one of the Nazgul, but this was not a moment to lose their nerve and act rashly. Gandalf had successfully spied on Sauron once, there was no reason not to think he couldn't do it again - but it would be a good deal easier to pull that off with Sauron right there in Dol Guldur, near two elven realms it would not be unusual for Gandalf to visit.
Gandalf then went on to say this, and I've bolded a bit for emphasis:
It's possible that Saruman at one point believed what he said to be the truth. (When he realized it was not is a question for another essay.) If he said this at the last meeting of the White Council, it is likely that he said something similar when Gandalf first broke the news about the Necromancer.
So Saruman's been telling them that the One may not have been destroyed, but that it's permanently out of Sauron's reach.
Should the White Council have realized Saruman was stalling them? I'm not sure how. If Saruman spoke carefully - and there is no reason to think he did not - they would not have heard anything suspicious in his words. Unlike us, they were unaware that Saruman was no longer on their side. As far as they knew, he was still acting as the emissary of the Valar and working to defeat Sauron. They were also aware that it's not possible to defeat Sauron permanently as long as the Ring still exists. As such, 'watch and wait' isn't as terrible a strategy as it sounds with our knowledge of what Sauron was doing, what Saruman was up to, and where the Ring was.
What's more, the White Council were not thinking just of the immediate situation, but the long term. Even if it occured to rest of the Council that the Ring might not have ended up in the Sea as Saruman said, the sticking point remained that they couldn't solve the Sauron problem permanently while the Ring was still MIA. (And it did no one any good if the elves were to expend their strength on what would only be a delaying maneuver if Sauron still ended up with the Ring later - Elrond is hardly the only one of them who has seen fruitless victories. Galadriel, Celeborn, and Cirdan are all older than he is and have seen more.)
They were likely also concerned where Sauron would go if driven from Dol Guldur - and it's not as if he didn't have options. Moria wasn't far away, and had been empty since the dwarves fled from Durin's Bane, which was still there as far as anyone knew. The Nazgul had held Minas Morgul since about the same time. (TA 1981 for Moria, TA 2002 for Minas Morgul per the timeline on Tolkien Gateway, which I've generally found reliable.) Until Gandalf pointed thirteen dwarves and a hobbit at Erebor, Sauron could potentially have used the Lonely Mountain as a hiding place. The Council might also have considered the possiblity of Mordor, or that Sauron might have allies further south or East.
With an enemy like Sauron, while a larger distance between you may feel safer, it also increases the chances that you miss warning signs that he’s about to move. Really, it’s a ‘pick your poison’ choice. Would you like this very dangerous enemy practically on your doorstep, where you have a fair chance of recognizing if he’s about to Do Something but an accompanying risk that you may not be able to react in time, or at a more comfortable distance but with a larger chance that he can fly under the radar and may potentially be able to Do Something with effectively no warning at all, at which point you almost certainly will not be able to react in time?
I can't blame any on the White Council who were swayed into 'watch and wait' by Saruman if he used similar arguments. What did they have to set against his apparently logical argument? Sauron's rise was not easily directly observable; the first time he returned to Dol Goldur they supposed him to be one of the Nazgul and he fled before they discovered their error. They've seen nothing directly attributable to him, and they know the Nazgul do still exist, as do dragons and balrogs. They might have had vague misgivings, but nothing anyone could put a finger on.
Given that we know Saruman came very close to swaying people who knew him to be an outright enemy in the aftermath of Helm's Deep, if what he's saying makes sense, there's no evidence of wrongdoing or treachery on his part, and he's putting forth his powers of persuasion, I can definitely see how he could successfully manipulate even some of the oldest and wisest heads in Middle-earth.
starspray's Tumblr post on the subject. (Still reluctant to post meta on Tumblr. I do not think Starspray will be an ass about it, but others have been, occasionally long after it was originally posted.)First, the ninety years factor doesn't seem all that odd to me. Ninety years doesn't mean nearly as much to a group of immortal beings as it does to you or I. (It took the Valar several years to deal with the Darkening of Valinor, and that was arguably a pretty urgent matter. If we've learned nothing else this year, we've learned that nature reacts pretty fast to changing circumstances. So I'm doubling down on my longstanding 'the Valar do not see things the way the Children do' theory.)
We know that Saruman knew more about ring lore than anyone else on the White Council. We also know that if he was not already under the sway of Sauron at this time, he was at least not telling the full truth to the White Council. We do have some idea of what he was telling them, based on what Gandalf says at the Council of Elrond in Fellowship of the Ring ("The Council of Elrond"):
Some here will remember that many years ago I myself dared to pass the doors of the Necromancer in Dol Guldur, and secretly explored his ways, and found thus that our fears were true: he was none other than Sauron, our Enemy of old, at length taking shape and power again. Some, too, will remember also that Saruman dissuaded us from open deeds against him, and for long we watched him only. Yet at last, as his shadow grew, Saruman yielded, and the Council put forth its strength and drove the evil out of Mirkwood - and that was in the very year of the finding of this Ring: a strange chance, if chance it was.
Note that Saruman dissuaded them from open deeds - that doesn't mean he dissuaded them from covert deeds, and Gandalf has already acted the spy on several occasions. I would bet Saruman put that magnificent voice of his to use making the case that Gandalf was unnecessarily rattled by the discovery that the Necromancer was Sauron rather than one of the Nazgul, but this was not a moment to lose their nerve and act rashly. Gandalf had successfully spied on Sauron once, there was no reason not to think he couldn't do it again - but it would be a good deal easier to pull that off with Sauron right there in Dol Guldur, near two elven realms it would not be unusual for Gandalf to visit.
Gandalf then went on to say this, and I've bolded a bit for emphasis:
Then for the last time the Council met; for now we learned that he was seeking ever more eagerly for the One. We feared then that he had some news of it that we knew nothing of. But Saruman said nay, and repeated what he had said to us before: that the One would never again be found in Middle-earth.
"At the worst," said he, "our Enemy knows that we hav it not, and that it still is lost. But what was lost may yet be found, the thinks. Fear not! His hope will cheat him. Have I not earnestly studied this matter? Into Anduin the Great it fell; and long ago, while Sauron slept, it was rolled down the River to the Sea. There let it lie until the End."
It's possible that Saruman at one point believed what he said to be the truth. (When he realized it was not is a question for another essay.) If he said this at the last meeting of the White Council, it is likely that he said something similar when Gandalf first broke the news about the Necromancer.
So Saruman's been telling them that the One may not have been destroyed, but that it's permanently out of Sauron's reach.
Should the White Council have realized Saruman was stalling them? I'm not sure how. If Saruman spoke carefully - and there is no reason to think he did not - they would not have heard anything suspicious in his words. Unlike us, they were unaware that Saruman was no longer on their side. As far as they knew, he was still acting as the emissary of the Valar and working to defeat Sauron. They were also aware that it's not possible to defeat Sauron permanently as long as the Ring still exists. As such, 'watch and wait' isn't as terrible a strategy as it sounds with our knowledge of what Sauron was doing, what Saruman was up to, and where the Ring was.
What's more, the White Council were not thinking just of the immediate situation, but the long term. Even if it occured to rest of the Council that the Ring might not have ended up in the Sea as Saruman said, the sticking point remained that they couldn't solve the Sauron problem permanently while the Ring was still MIA. (And it did no one any good if the elves were to expend their strength on what would only be a delaying maneuver if Sauron still ended up with the Ring later - Elrond is hardly the only one of them who has seen fruitless victories. Galadriel, Celeborn, and Cirdan are all older than he is and have seen more.)
They were likely also concerned where Sauron would go if driven from Dol Guldur - and it's not as if he didn't have options. Moria wasn't far away, and had been empty since the dwarves fled from Durin's Bane, which was still there as far as anyone knew. The Nazgul had held Minas Morgul since about the same time. (TA 1981 for Moria, TA 2002 for Minas Morgul per the timeline on Tolkien Gateway, which I've generally found reliable.) Until Gandalf pointed thirteen dwarves and a hobbit at Erebor, Sauron could potentially have used the Lonely Mountain as a hiding place. The Council might also have considered the possiblity of Mordor, or that Sauron might have allies further south or East.
With an enemy like Sauron, while a larger distance between you may feel safer, it also increases the chances that you miss warning signs that he’s about to move. Really, it’s a ‘pick your poison’ choice. Would you like this very dangerous enemy practically on your doorstep, where you have a fair chance of recognizing if he’s about to Do Something but an accompanying risk that you may not be able to react in time, or at a more comfortable distance but with a larger chance that he can fly under the radar and may potentially be able to Do Something with effectively no warning at all, at which point you almost certainly will not be able to react in time?
I can't blame any on the White Council who were swayed into 'watch and wait' by Saruman if he used similar arguments. What did they have to set against his apparently logical argument? Sauron's rise was not easily directly observable; the first time he returned to Dol Goldur they supposed him to be one of the Nazgul and he fled before they discovered their error. They've seen nothing directly attributable to him, and they know the Nazgul do still exist, as do dragons and balrogs. They might have had vague misgivings, but nothing anyone could put a finger on.
Given that we know Saruman came very close to swaying people who knew him to be an outright enemy in the aftermath of Helm's Deep, if what he's saying makes sense, there's no evidence of wrongdoing or treachery on his part, and he's putting forth his powers of persuasion, I can definitely see how he could successfully manipulate even some of the oldest and wisest heads in Middle-earth.
