The Union of Fingon - What If The Nirnaeth Ended Differently?

[grundyscribbling]

oloriel posted on Tumblr last night, wondering whether The Union of Maedhros would have been called the Union of Fingon had it succeeded. Which promptly made me wonder what the subsequent history of Beleriand looks like in that case. [Link to both on my Tumblr].

I woke up still thinking about it. So it being long, I'm writing it out here. Yes, I know it would get more views on Tumblr, but if anyone is inclined to interact, I'd rather have a conversation than that weird, sprawling, forking thing that happens on Tumblr as people reblog.


To start with, I think it would absolutely have been the Union of Fingon had the outcome of the battle been in favor of the elves rather than Morgoth. Fingon was the High King, and it's good to be king - you tend to get your name plastered on successful ventures, even if you didn't do the grunt work. (I'm not convinced Maedhros would have had significant issues with this. It may even have been his intended/preferred outcome. Recall that he's someone who abdicated to put the Noldor in a better position. He is a strategic thinker, and who gets the credit in the short term is less important than the outcome long term.) More to the point, the folks who write the history of Beleriand are heavily influenced by the views of the surviving Noldor. I see no way in a 'Nirnaeth was actually a win' scenario that the surviving Noldor don't hold it up as a shining moment in their history, regardless of what happens after. It would be regarded as one of King Fingon's great achievements.

Where it gets interesting for me is trying to tease out what the butterfly effect from this change looks like. There are two possibilities here. In the first scenario, Fingon still dies. In the second, Fingon survives. At first, I thought 'Fingon survives' would be the more likely scenario, but the more I think about it, the less sure I am that's a defensible statement. Let's consider both scenarios.

Scenario I - Fingon Still Dies
Is this a possibility? Yes, absolutely. Battles are chaotic, it's hard to predict who will end up on casualty lists, and you can die just as dead winning as losing. Maybe Fingon's death happens much as it did in the original timeline (henceforth referred to as OTL) but becomes a rallying point instead of a crisis point. Turgon flips shit and utterly annihilates all enemy forces in front of him, setting off a chain reaction collapse of Morgoth's lines as they're pushed back into Angband. Or maybe the elves already have the upper hand, but Fingon is just unlucky and catches an arrow to the eye. Morgoth isn't fighting for the succession/crown, so Fingon's death in and of itself doesn't determine the outcome of the battle; it's just an unfortunate byproduct totally in keeping with the Doom. Either is plausible.

No matter how it happens, if Fingon dies but the elves are victorious, Turgon is now king. And this is a slight problem, because even a victorious King Turgon is highly unlikely to do anything but return to his secret city unless the battle was a total victory - meaning Morgoth was defeated utterly. But that's a highly unlikely outcome - remember, Vala he is. To get rid of him permanently takes intervention from powers higher than elves. (Before anyone suggests it, I doubt Melian alone would be sufficient. Particularly not when Sauron is also still around. 1 maia !> 1 maia + 1 Vala.)

It's far more likely that a victory at the non-Nirnaeth is substantial but not permanent - Morgoth is still going to retreat somewhere to lick his wounds, possibly the deepest parts of Angband, possibly somewhere else further north or off in the east, but he's not gone for good. So High King Turgon will be returning to Gondolin and keeping it secret and safe, much as he did in the OTL. That's great for the Gondolindrim, but pretty terrible for the wider political situation. Granted, without the collapse of the Noldor positions in the North, there are fewer pressing problems and the Noldorin realms aren't in immediate danger. But without a High King who will negotiate with Thingol, everything else returns to the status quo ante, with the Feanorions in their fortresses and Thingol in his forest - still holding a Silmaril.

In a Fingon dies scenario, I don't see Turgon feeling any urgency to treat with Thingol on behalf of his Feanorion cousins, even though the wake of a massive victory that Thingol did not contribute to is the best possible time for such negotiations. That means there's still a ticking Silmaril in Doriath. It might not necessarily lead to another Kinslaying. But it definitely doesn't lead anywhere good.

Maedhros has no incentive to restrain his brothers from moving against Doriath in this case, because there is no clear path to the Silmaril other than direct action by the Feanorions. Thingol's made his position clear. (In summation, "off is the direction in which you should kindly fuck.") However, there's still a major difference to OTL - the Feanorions still retain their territories and fortresses, and thus are acting from a considerably stronger position.

They might march against Doriath much as they did in OTL, but that seems like an option of last resort for a strategic thinker like Maedhros. It's more likely they form an alliance with the dwarves to regain the Silmaril by stealth. (Yes, I think this is an option Maedhros would consider. He certainly tried stealth/underhanded tactics in dealing with Morgoth, another opponent he knew to be holding Silmarils and not negotiating in good faith.) Not only was there dwarven participation in the victory at the non-Nirnaeth, remember that in this scenario the dwarves would be coming and going to Doriath across Feanorion lands. There is most likely no Nauglamir in Doriath in this timeline - Nargothrond is still doing just fine under King Orodreth, and Turin is not a human disaster magnet because his father is not Morgoth's plaything. But Thingol still wants to wear the Silmaril, so who else would he turn to but the dwarves for such a commission? (He's either seen or heard of the Nauglamir, the Noldor aren't about to help because the non-Feanorions among them know darn well to steer clear of Silmarils, and we don't hear of any famous pieces of jewelry made by the Sindar.)

Thingol's death in this scenario might be less an accident/heat-of-the-moment killing than an intentional assassination. My logic is less 'it's not Kinslaying if dwarves do it!' than that dwarves seem to regard the work of their hands differently than elves do - given how far they will go to regain things taken from them unjustly, it may well be viewed as justice to kill someone who is knowingly and intentionally withholding someone else's rightful property. They may also be less worried about collateral damage than their elven allies, particularly if Thingol is once again being stingy and refusing to pay.

Whether or not Thingol's death under such circumstances would be considered kinslaying is up for debate; I doubt it deserves the moniker Second Kinslaying given that it's one single elf (and possibly a few guards) being slain rather than the wholesale slaughter of the OTL Feanorion storming of Menegroth.

At that point, it becomes a question of 'what happens to the Silmaril?' OTL, the dwarves were unable to get very far without pursuit by Doriath - but in the OTL, they were crossing unheld territory. In our scenario, they're crossing Feanorion territory - there's every likelihood they get safely away and deliver the Silmaril to their allies. Beren's pursuit is turned back, if it happens at all. For messengers to reach Tol Galen, they also have to cross Feanorion territory. Even if we assume Melian herself gets word to her daughter and son-in-law, Beren would still have to cross either Feanorion territory or go around the long way to lead any punitive force, then enter Feanorion territory with said force, hardly something the Feanorions are likely to allow! It's far more likely there is no pursuit led by Beren, and that instead, Dior takes up the kingship of Doriath without a Silmaril while the Feanorions pat themselves on the back and stare at their shiny rock.

However, should the dwarves fail to get the Silmaril safely to their Feanorion allies, the stage would be set for something very similar to the OTL Second Kinslaying. In this timeline, the Second Kinslaying would be a good candidate to trigger Morgoth's next assault - he seizes the opportunity to strike hard while Doriath is crippled and the Noldor in disarray. (At the very least they would be split into Feanorion and non-Feanorion factions, and might be further riven by lack of a unifying High King, because how well is Turgon going to be able to react and coordinate from his hidden valley?) In this case, the Feanorions become even more reviled than OTL - their actions opened the door for Morgoth's resurgence. The Feanorions may or may not regain the Silmaril in this Second Kinslaying, but they probably end up just as shattered as they were in the OTL post-Nirnaeth, leaving Morgoth in a strong position to go after the remaining Noldorin realms in the North. As in OTL, Gondolin and Nargothrond would be the last ones to fall.

It is, however, an open question in this scenario when Elwing and Earendil meet, and under what circumstances. While it's likely some form of incident between Doriath and the Feanorions happens in this timeline, it's not likely that Gondolin falls anywhere near as quickly - and with the circumstances of Morgoth's drive against them so different, the Gondolindrim may not flee to Sirion (still the logical choice for Iathrim refugees), but to Mithrim, Nevrast, or the Falas. There might still be potential for a Third Kinslaying, but it would probably be a very different Third Kinslaying. (What a Third Kinslaying looked like would be heavily dependent on the details and outcome of the Second Kinslaying - were any Feanorions killed? Did they regain the jewel? Was Elwing once again the survivor? What happened to Elured and Elurin? Were Dior's children all still young in this scenario? Did any of them end up in Feanorion hands?)

The post-First Age reputation of the Feanorions in this sceanrio is likely worse than OTL, and there may or may not be anyone like Elrond who has good memories of them to counteract all the guilt laid at their door by the surviving Noldor and Sindar.


Scenario II - Fingon Lives
Now let's look at a scenario in which the outcome of the battle is not just victory for the elves, but a victory for the elves in which Fingon survives. This changes quite a bit.

Why? Because now there is a fully engaged High King who has been coordinating with his Feanorion cousins. It's all but certain that continues after the battle. Again, I doubt the victory is total. Morgoth is still off licking his wounds somewhere. But Fingon isn't hiding. He's taking the next logical steps - capitalizing on his victory and preparing for the next round.

This means first and foremost opening a dialog with Thingol to bring him into a closer alliance. One that includes Thingol actually contributing to the next fight against Morgoth, the one that the Noldor hope will bring complete and lasting victory. (This, by the way, is where everything would fall apart in this scenario. What was the Nirnaeth OTL is a victory, but the next battle will probably be Nirnaeth equivalent unless the Valar have a change of heart unprompted and decide to rescind the Doom.)

What do negotiations with Thingol include? At the very least, a sharp reminder that so far, the Noldor have been amazing allies - they've single-handedly conducted Thingol's defense for him, with no help from him. (Yes, I know Beleg and Mablung were at the battle, but sending two warriors, no matter how badass, is not a serious contribution to a war effort.) They also include the reminder that Thingol has no serious claim to the Silmaril besides 'finders keepers' and 'possession is nine tenths of the law'. Maedhros, in this scenario, is also in a far better position to restrain himself and his brothers - there's no need to do anything rash when the High King himself has taken up their cause. He's far more likely to let diplomacy play out first- indeed, it's in his interest to exhaust all diplomatic options and make it plain to the world that it's Thingol who is being unreasonable. (And remember, at this point, Thingol has form - he was unreasonable to the children of Finarfin when he learned about the Kinslaying, he's unreasonable to his daughter when she brings home her boyfriend. The Sindar should be starting to wonder about him, particularly after he's refused to get involved in fighting the Enemy.)

Does Thingol surrender the Silmaril? Probably not. He's still Thingol, and there's little reason to think he'll have a personality change because the Noldor and their Mannish allies won a battle. As with the 'Fingon dies' scenario, there is no Nauglamir and no Turin the disaster magnet, but Thingol is still coveting the Silmaril. He may well still die at the hands of dwarves he refused to pay. But in this scenario, it's unlikely they are working with the Feanorions. Not only does Maedhros have incentive not to rock the boat, with a High King of the Noldor pushing for the return of his vassals' property, Thingol is going to keep this venture on the downlow unless he's being intentionally provocative. (Which he usually isn't - Thingol's flaw is that he doesn't think things through when his emotions are engaged. But 'I want to wear the pretty' isn't on the same level of emotion as 'they did what to my brother's people?' or 'this filthy mortal wants to marry my only child?') And again, it's the reaction to his death that differs wildly from OTL. This is where the butterfly's wing flap starts to create storms.

For one thing, the Noldor are aware of what has happened almost immediately - all of them, because Maedhros and Fingon are still in contact. The dwarves fleeing Doriath with the Silmaril in this timeline must cross Feanorion territory to get back to their own halls. Ambarussa may not think to ask what their hurry is, but Caranthir definitely will. At which point, either there is further violence, as the Oath compels Caranthir to regain the Silmaril at the cost of his working relationship with the dwarves, or Caranthir cuts a deal with the dwarves.

Why would they cut a deal? Simple. Caranthir doesn't care about any damn necklace, he just needs the jewel back. Both sides can keep what was made by their people - and the Feanorions will prevent any pursuit or reprisals against the dwarves of Nogrod from Doriath or Tol Galen to boot. For the dwarves, this is not a bad deal. They don't get the pretty, but they do get their own work plus effective reassurance that this will be the end of the affair - with the Feanorions denying them passage through their lands, Doriath has no good way to get at Nogrod.

Whether they fight the dwarves or cut a deal with them, it's all but sure that if another Kinslaying happens in this scenario, it's not initiated by the Feanorions. With Thingol dead and the Silmaril Luthien retrieved in their hands, they have no further quarrel (and for most of them, probably no further business at all) with Doriath. If it came to a fight with the dwarves, they may even be in a position to turn around and tell Dior (or Luthien and Beren) that they have in fact dealt with Thingol's killers, you're welcome.

Beyond this point, I feel like we're entering the realm of wild speculation. Given how long the watchful peace prior to the OTL Nirnaeth lasted, it's anywhere from possible to probable that both Elwing and Earendil would grow up in safe, intact (and in Earendil's case, isolated) realms, not meeting until they were adults under far different circumstances. There's no clear path to Earendil having a Silmaril to sail to Valinor with - the Feanorions aren't about to give theirs up, and it's unlikely anybody went and got another one from Morgoth - meaning the catalyst for a change of heart on the part of the Valar is missing. Also, in a timeline with no impetus for a Third Kinslaying, Elros and Elrond (who may still be born, but in a vastly different situation) probably don't end up with the last surviving Feanorions, which I suspect means that after the inevitable alternate Nirnaeth eventually takes place and things break down completely, there is no one left who has any reason to stick up for them when the dust settles and the histories of the First Age are written. (Except possibly Celebrimbor, but as the last member of the House of Feanor standing, he'd be in a rather weak position to sway anyone.) The picture of them in this timeline paradoxically may be even worse than that of OTL or a 'Fingon dies' scenario despite them achieving more before it all went to hell.

Will there be fic of any of this? Maybe. Feel free to comment on the scenarios I've laid out and point out if I've overlooked something glaringly obvious.