... Maybe. Maybe if he'd ravened Bard earlier and offered treasure, Bard would have been prepared to negotiate.
But I think that assumes that Thranduil's objective was only treasure and peace, and not securing the Mountain.
Like you, I assume Thranduil to be a competent war-leader, and also that he was concerned that Erebor would attract enemies.
What I'm not convinced of though is that Thorin could have offered anything to Bard that would definitely have resulted in the Elves confining themselves to humanitarian aid only.
If Erebor was left there guarded by 13 dwarves and a hobbit, it continues to be a goblin-magnet and an obvious threat to Mirkwood. Even if Dain joins Thorin with 500 dwarves (and Thranduil didn't know he was coming, I think?) that's not a vast army that will definitely be able to hold the Mountain against the forces that will probably assail it now it's dragon-free.
The question is, I suppose, would Thranduil risk his kingdom to keep his word to a dwarf? Thorin, presumably, thought not, and I'm not sure I don't agree with him, even without the hoard of Smaug whispering in my ear.
I've long wondered about the dwarf-elf wars mentioned in the Hobbit. We know about Doriath and Sarn Athrad, of course. But on its own, that's one battle, thousands of years earlier, and I wonder if there had been subsequent confrontations.
Gandalf says at the Council of Elrond something like; if all the arguments between Dwarves and Elves needed to be resolved, they might as well abandon the Council, and that does make it seem like more than two battles and a misunderstanding over forest pathway rights of way.
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But I think that assumes that Thranduil's objective was only treasure and peace, and not securing the Mountain.
Like you, I assume Thranduil to be a competent war-leader, and also that he was concerned that Erebor would attract enemies.
What I'm not convinced of though is that Thorin could have offered anything to Bard that would definitely have resulted in the Elves confining themselves to humanitarian aid only.
If Erebor was left there guarded by 13 dwarves and a hobbit, it continues to be a goblin-magnet and an obvious threat to Mirkwood. Even if Dain joins Thorin with 500 dwarves (and Thranduil didn't know he was coming, I think?) that's not a vast army that will definitely be able to hold the Mountain against the forces that will probably assail it now it's dragon-free.
The question is, I suppose, would Thranduil risk his kingdom to keep his word to a dwarf? Thorin, presumably, thought not, and I'm not sure I don't agree with him, even without the hoard of Smaug whispering in my ear.
I've long wondered about the dwarf-elf wars mentioned in the Hobbit. We know about Doriath and Sarn Athrad, of course. But on its own, that's one battle, thousands of years earlier, and I wonder if there had been subsequent confrontations.
Gandalf says at the Council of Elrond something like; if all the arguments between Dwarves and Elves needed to be resolved, they might as well abandon the Council, and that does make it seem like more than two battles and a misunderstanding over forest pathway rights of way.